LAST RAS BEFORE THE VOTE - AT 9:34 A.M. ET:  The last Rasmussen presidential tracking poll before tomorrow's election has just been published, and it's not good news for the White House or those depending on Obaman coattails:

Some 27% of likely voters strongly approve of the job President Obama is doing, but 40% strongly disapprove, a minus 13 gap.  Only one before on a day in August, did the president fare worse in this measurement.

Overall, 46% of likely voters approve of the president's job performance, but 52% disapprove.

Other polls show the president in a stronger position, but some of them measure total registered voters or even total citizens, not likely voters.

It isn't all bleak for the administration.  The number of people who consider themselves Democrats has inched up in recent months, whereas the number who consider themselves Republicans has dropped slightly.  It now stands at 37.8% Dem, 31.9% GOP.  However, this poll was taken among all adults, and Rasmussen points out that Republicans are somewhat more likely to vote.  And we should not forget that independents have been trending rightward recently, so party affiliation may not be an indicator of election results. 

The poll that counts is the one taken tomorrow in key states, and all over the country in 2010 and 2012.

November 2, 2009